Un nuevo estudio establece un vínculo causal entre el clima, el conflicto y la migración

La investigación dirigida por el IIASA ha establecido un vínculo causal entre el clima, el conflicto y la migración por primera vez, algo que ha sido ampliamente sugerido en los medios de comunicación, pero para el cual la evidencia científica es escasa.

Hay numerosos ejemplos en las últimas décadas en los que se ha culpado a las condiciones climáticas por crear disturbios políticos, guerras civiles y, posteriormente, olas de migración . Un ejemplo importante es el conflicto en curso en Siria, que comenzó en 2011. Muchos países costeros del Mediterráneo en Europa también están inundados de refugiados que llegan por mar huyendo del conflicto en África.

Los investigadores de IIASA Guy Abel (también afiliado a la Universidad de Shanghai), Jesús Crespo Cuaresma (también Universidad de Economía y Negocios de Viena), Raya Muttarak (también Universidad de East Anglia), y Michael Brottrager (Universidad Johannes Kepler de Linz) buscaron averiguar si hay es un vínculo causal entre el cambio climático y la migración, y la naturaleza del mismo. Encontraron que, en circunstancias específicas, las condiciones climáticas conducen a un aumento de la migración, pero indirectamente, a través de la causa del conflicto.

"Esta investigación aborda el tema ampliamente cubierto en los medios de comunicación. Contribuimos al debate sobre la migración inducida por el clima al proporcionar nueva evidencia científica", dice Muttarak.

Los solicitantes de asilo son más propensos a ser influenciados por el conflicto que los migrantes habituales, por lo que los investigadores optaron por utilizar los datos de las solicitudes de asilo de 157 países de 2006 a 15 para estudiar los patrones. Estos datos se obtuvieron de las Altas Comisiones de las Naciones Unidas para los Derechos Humanos (ACNUR). Como medida de las condiciones climáticas en los países originales de los solicitantes de asilo , el equipo utilizó el Índice Estandarizado de Evapotranspiración de Precipitación (SPEI), que mide las sequías, en comparación con las condiciones normales, a través de la identificación del inicio y el final de las sequías y su intensidad, en función de en la precipitación, evaporación, transpiración y condiciones climáticas como la temperatura. Para evaluar el conflicto, Abel y el equipo utilizaron datos sobre muertes relacionadas con la batalla del Programa de Datos de Conflicto de Uppsala (UCDP).

Estos conjuntos de datos se incorporaron al marco de modelación de los investigadores, junto con varios conjuntos de datos socioeconómicos y geográficos. Estas incluían la distancia entre el país de origen y el destino, el tamaño de la población, las redes de migrantes, el estatus político de los países y los grupos étnicos y religiosos.

Los investigadores descubrieron que el cambio climático desempeñaba un papel importante en la migración, con sequías más graves relacionadas con la exacerbación de conflictos.

El efecto del clima en los conflictos es particularmente relevante para los países de Asia occidental a partir de 2010-12, como la llamada Primavera Árabe, levantamientos políticos que ocurrieron en países como Túnez, Libia y Yemen, y Siria, donde el conflicto llevó a un guerra civil en curso En particular, en Siria, las sequías prolongadas y la escasez de agua causada por el cambio climático provocaron repetidas fallas en los cultivos, y las familias rurales finalmente se mudaron a las áreas urbanas. Esto, a su vez, llevó al hacinamiento, el desempleo y los disturbios políticos, y luego la guerra civil. También se encontraron patrones similares en el África subsahariana en el mismo período de tiempo.

"El cambio climático no causará conflictos y los flujos subsiguientes de búsqueda de asilo en todas partes. Pero en un contexto de gobierno deficiente y un nivel medio de democracia, las condiciones climáticas severas pueden crear conflictos por los recursos escasos", dice Crespo Cuaresma.

Los investigadores dicen que las preocupaciones relacionadas con el conflicto inducido por el cambio climático que lleva a la migración deben considerarse en el contexto de los Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible (ODS) de la ONU. En la actualidad, el vínculo entre el cambio climático y la migración no es explícito, y no se tratan como interrelacionados. Se necesita más investigación para comprender mejor los flujos migratorios.

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